Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 13.672016 16.624428 19.902677 23.790600 28.252825 33.190993 39.045264
2026-01-18 9.689374 13.557978 18.315437 24.498708 32.217943 41.429341 53.135564
2026-01-25 7.044688 11.097608 16.517051 24.084172 34.146520 46.826453 63.743443
2026-02-01 5.520052 9.646452 15.572972 24.350450 36.623215 52.754093 75.079584
2026-02-08 4.248456 8.224706 14.342827 23.915783 37.923832 57.035061 84.341457
2026-02-15 3.252457 6.979101 13.114252 23.228634 38.666021 60.451662 92.475561
2026-02-22 2.743284 6.429176 12.850844 23.897619 41.333257 66.597863 104.556702
2026-03-01 2.178580 5.633106 12.035069 23.556754 42.387507 70.421576 113.482106
2026-03-08 1.783068 5.065144 11.509095 23.593392 43.968280 75.030629 123.666522
2026-03-15 1.354507 4.301521 10.487112 22.636650 43.837259 77.003676 130.014452
2026-03-22 1.169129 4.045170 10.392088 23.288509 46.355051 83.107386 142.704989
2026-03-29 0.991776 3.755814 10.178986 23.684724 48.441191 88.602202 154.651061
2026-04-05 0.829852 3.474960 9.976968 24.155275 50.820929 94.892207 168.427229
2026-04-12 0.704343 3.257769 9.884038 24.838276 53.642612 102.070015 183.944773
2026-04-19 0.542494 2.855439 9.283103 24.416805 54.422833 105.915528 194.345744
2026-04-26 0.443806 2.620035 9.034994 24.685794 56.467697 111.928202 208.386325
2026-05-03 0.337935 2.297324 8.492944 24.246400 57.122532 115.587448 218.724489
2026-05-10 0.247811 1.976466 7.876830 23.551762 57.208053 118.236171 227.465215
2026-05-17 0.210287 1.875517 7.860756 24.228038 60.027125 125.758735 244.499975
2026-05-24 0.158078 1.655530 7.437724 23.883463 60.756271 129.593360 255.470376
2026-05-31 0.123425 1.503101 7.186421 23.920501 62.255246 134.850661 268.989464
2026-06-07 0.083199 1.261679 6.571256 22.953288 61.568916 136.081416 275.645532
2026-06-14 0.069718 1.204286 6.582535 23.612291 64.386216 143.866723 293.827933